Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Predicting 2023 Game-by-Game Results
Sponsor: FTB’s Donors Club – the most direct way to support our efforts – is back for another year! (sad Sarah McLachlan music plays) For $9.99 you can feed a starving blogger…and get a cool FTB bottle koozie in return! JOIN HERE.
*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!
Introduction
One week. Seven days. 168 hours. 10,080 minutes. 604,800 seco…check that 604,799… no, 604,798 seconds.
But who’s counting, right?
The long summer is basically behind us as the promising, high-anticipated, I’m-ready-to-be-hurt-again 2023 Penn State football season looms on the horizon! This has to be the most-hyped campaign in recent memory as it’s not just blue-and-white homers like me and you trumpeting the Nittany Lions’ CFP chances. Frankly, it almost TOO many people of relevance are hyping them up…although I suppose it beats the alternative.
In today’s ABC’s we’ll see if our proprietary algorithm is also all aboard the Penn State hype train (Spoiler Alert: It’s vigorously shoveling coal into the furnace) by calculating the win probability of each game in the Nittany Lions’ regular season slate. Now, before you scoff at the numbers spit out here – or plop down your kids’ college fund on the Win Total OVER — let us state the obvious: it’s challenging forecasting outcomes of games in October or November in August (or even in October or November for that matter) because of the unknown, ever-changing variables. Weather. Injuries. Demotions. Suspensions. Emerging Stars. Take your pick. So with that established, keep in mind that ratings below are based on a team’s recent momentum and weighs the each program’s performances from 2020-2022 with some caveats.
AGAIN, with the portal, incoming freshman, coaching changes, and inevitable bumps and bruises that will occur, there are factors that cannot be accounted in the summer before a season.
Nevertheless, we must generate content and that is what we will do.
For each game, we ran 1,000 simulations where we look at the expected worst- and best-case performance that each team’s offense and defense should have versus the other. We will present Penn State’s win probability, expected points scored, and the expected histogram of margin. We’ll add up each expected outcome to predict the final record.
Game-by-Game Predictions
West Virginia: One of Penn State’s oldest rivals, the Mountaineers from WVU come to Happy Valley to open the season. The nighttime tilt marks the beginning of a few eras 1. The Drew Allar Starting QB Era (we’re guessing). 2. The B1G on NBC Era. 3. And of course, The Please Stop Playing That ‘Here Comes Saturday Night’ FallOut Boy Promo/Intro Song Era.
In addition to Allar, we’ll get our first glimpse at a should-be explosive Penn State offense and arguably the best defense in the country. The Lions go up against a Mountaineer team that struggled defensively last year, especially in the secondary. It’s a perfect match-up for Drew’s first start: under the lights against a beatable P5 team instead of some FCS cupcake.
The Lions are a 20.5-point favorite which, to me, seems a bit steep. Our algo gives Penn State an 82% chance of winning, though the average score (35-23) is more than a TD short of covering the spread. In the bottom graphs below, you can see a few simulations ended in blowouts where Penn State won by 30+ and posted a 50 burger. Should one of those outlier outcomes come to fruition, the hype train would morph into a runaway train without brakes for the next several weeks.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 0.8 Wins – 0.2 Losses
- Absolute: 1 – 0
Delaware: This is the first example of the schedule setting up perfectly for the Nittany Lions in 2023. After a P5 opener, they get an FCS opponent to rough up in Happy Valley before embarking on a challenging two-week Big Ten West test. This rent-a-win schedule-filler should give the offense reps to smooth out any bumpy areas that occurred in the WVU opener – a dress rehersal if you will before conference play begins with Illinois and Iowa. Better yet, this expected breather offers a chance for both Beau Pribula and Jaxon Smolik to throw live bullets for the first time, which prove invaluable during a grueling Big Ten season. Penn State wins this one by 20+…at least.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 1.8 Wins — 0.2 Losses
- Absolute: 2 – 0
Illinois: Tougher than a nickel steak, the Illini will have a solid run game, play stingy defense, and will be well coached. Couple those givens with a sleepy, 11 am local time kickoff in a (we’re guessing) half-full stadium, with a revenge Whiteout a week away, and you got yourself a textbook trap game. But, unlike in 2021 where the Illini snuck one out against Penn State to the tune of 20-18 after 9 overtimes, our algorithm predicts the 2023 Lions will sidestep any traps – no matter how many O-Lineman Illinois throws out there. Given the massive amounts of offensives and defensive productivity lost from Illinois’ 8-5 2022 squad, we feel our model’s 57% win probability for Penn State is a bit low.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 2.3 Wins – 0.7 Losses
- Absolute: 3 – 0
Iowa: Not that you need the reminder, but the last time Penn State and Iowa met was in Iowa City in 2021 – a game in which Fox cameras caught Mac’s Mom doppelganger mocking injured Penn State players. Once Sean Clifford left the game before halftime with a rib injury, Penn State’s offense turned into the worst version of themselves and could barely move the ball. Still, it took nearly every minute for Iowa to pull out a win as its offense wasn’t much better (even with their starters).
Our algorithm envisions a similar slug-fest scenario this year, albeit with a different outcome. Low Scoring. Sluggish. Penn State wins by a TD. What our equation can’t compute is what effect the Whiteout will have. This game could turn into a route and I am here for it.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 3.0 Wins – 1.0 Losses
- Absolute: 4 – 0
Northwestern: Another blindspot in our algorithm – total program implosion. Always a thorn in the Nittany Lions’ paw, Pat Fitzgerald’s Northwestern teams were Illinois before Illinois – a fundamentally-sound squad that was gonna run the ball, tackle, and not beat itself. But now, with Fitzgerald dismissed following hazing allegations, Northwestern week looks like the start of 3 consecutive bye weeks to prepare for Ohio State. The win total over/under for the Wildcats is 3 and they play UTEP, Duke, and Howard out of conference. They should beat Howard but after that, where do you find 2+ wins for them? Take the under.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 3.7 Wins – 1.3 Losses
- Absolute: 5 – 0
Massachusetts: Coming off the actual bye week, UMass provides the perfect tune-up heading into Columbus the following week. We all know that PSU struggles when they play tougher opponents after a bye so again, So this should be the ideal patsy for the Lions to shake off the rust from a week of rest. Coached by Dr. Blitz Don Brown, UMass’ defense will only resemble Michigan’s mid-2010’s defenses in that all 11 starters will have two arms and two legs – just like the Wolverines did. After that, the similarities end. We expect a 92% chance to win with an average margin of over 20 points. This will be the last time for PSU fans to relax all season. Enjoy it because the following week is stress level 10+.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 4.6 Wins – 1.4 Losses
- Absolute: 6 – 0
Ohio State: Key game No. 1 is at Ohio Stadium on October 21st. As I write this, 9 weeks away from this particular kickoff, it feels like this is Penn State’s best chance to pick off the Buckeyes on the road since 2017 (or even 2011). They will have a new QB (but who?), new offensive tackles that are reported to be struggling in camp, a new playcaller in Brian Hartline, and a defense that (on paper) isn’t as strong as Penn State’s. But, even in perceived rebuilding years, the Buckeyes still seem to produce multiple first round picks and shuffle out a Heisman finalist QB. Logic suggests one of these years will be the year it doesn’t follow the script…but is it this year? Our equation prediction has Ohio State winning by 8 with PSU sporting a 22% chance of victory. Personally, I feel the win percentage of this game and the win percentage of the Michigan game a few paragraphs from now are a bit out of whack in favor of the respective home teams. From a roster construction standpoint, Penn State is built to compete with Ohio State.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 4.8 Wins – 2.2 Losses
- Absolute: 6 – 1
Indiana: The week after Ohio State, Indiana comes to town and, again, should provide a good and needed reprieve for Penn State. Indiana isn’t expected to be good this year…just like last year and the year before that. In our best Rick Pitino impression, “Michael Penix Jr. isn’t walking through that door” (although how great would a playoff game be against Penix’s Washington Huskies as a revenge game for the 2020 opener?) Anyway, this will probably be a low-energy noon game so just take the win and move on.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 5.6 Wins – 2.4 Losses
- Absolute: 8 – 1
Maryland: According to the Internet, this is Maryland’s year…where the turtles breakthrough and contend for the division (as we’ve heard for the 8th year in a row). They get Tua Light back as starter for the 4th season and stats suggest he’ll be one of the best QBs in the conference – he has completed 67% of passes for his career… But can the rest of the team hold up? Maryland starting hot in September, having a 4-5 turnover FS1 meltdown, then limping to the finish is fall tradition that rivals pumpkin spice lattes and apple picking. The Terps should never be taken lightly and with the game on the road it could pose problems. Still, the 54% win-percentage and 2-point differential that the predictor gives us below is… surprising.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 6.1 Wins – 2.9 Losses
- Absolute: 8 – 1
Michigan: Huge game No. 2. Load your JIF and Smuckers in the chamber, because Michigan is coming to town. There is a decent chance that this ends up being a top-5 battle of 9-0 teams…and if it is, a Penn State win would essentially wrap up the Big Ten East. Even if Penn State is 8-1 at this time, it’s still a vital game to determine who wins the division. Having this game at Beaver Stadium is huge, according to our algorithm. The last 5 times that Penn State has played in Ann Arbor the results were: 2022 (loss by 24), 2020 (win by 10 – *), 2018 (loss by 35), 2016 (loss by 39), 2014 (loss by 5). That’s a minus-19 point differential for Penn State. In the last five home games against Michigan, however, Penn State is 3-2 including the 4OT game, the 2017 blowout, and a narrow 4-point loss in 2021 loss. On paper, this is the worst match-up that the Lions have on their schedule as Michigan tends to be the best possible version of Iowa or Illinois (tough defense, incredible offensive line and run game)…but with a QB who can run and throw, as well. Still, the algorithm picks Penn State.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 6.7 Wins – 3.3 Losses
- Absolute: 9 – 1
Rutgers: Welcome to Ciarrocca Bowl II. Yes, I’m excited, too. The former Gophers OC/PSU OC/Gophers OC teams up with iconic wood-chopper Greg Schiano. Will it matter this year against Penn State, though? I doubt it but…after the game against Michigan, the Nittany Lions emotion tank will probably be on E, so who knows? Our algorithm isn’t worried, as it gives Rutgers the same statistical chance of pulling off an upset as it did for Delaware and UMass.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 7.6 Wins – 3.4 Losses
- Absolute: 10 – 1
Michigan State: The roof atop Ford Field should (should) delete Mother Nature’s shenanigans, thus eliminating Michigan State’s meteorological 12th Man. No 4-hour storm delay. No blizzard. No chance for the “home” team. MSU is projected to win 4.5 games this year as the shine is officially worn off the Mel Tucker hire. They played the transfer game the last two seasons as more than 25% of their roster in 2021 and 2022 came from the portal. Now, the script has flipped. The Spartans lost a number of important players to the portal this offseason, including Payton Thorne (Auburn) and WR Keon Coleman (Florida State). Mel’s seat may be very hot after Penn State walks out of Detroit with a win, like B Rabbit.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 8.2 Wins – 3.8 Losses
- Absolute: 11 – 1
Wrap-up
In the absolute win category, the Lions are expected to go 11-1, which is a far cry from the 8-4 record our algorithm predicted for last year. But there are some closer probabilities than expected, which brings down the probabilistic total to 8.2. Therefore, to fuel my irrational fandom, I’m focusing on the algorithm’s absoIute win calculations – a record that should be CFP worthy. If that happens, and Penn State skates through its semifinal playoff opponent, the national championship will be 30 minutes from my house… and as I have said on Twitter all Penn State fans are welcome to the pregame and afterparty. Let’s go!
Leave a Comment