Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – National Preseason Top 25 and Big Ten Power Rankings

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Introduction

With the dead skin from our July 4^th sunburns fully peeled, and as we sit a few short weeks away from preseason camp beginning, now is the time where optimism runs wild. Watch out for (insert team). Call me crazy, but (insert team) is poised to make a run. And, of course, if things break right (insert team) is going to win the Natty.

Ah, that sweet symphony of hope.

Now, leave it to us – and our proprietary rating system – to either pump more sunshine into your veins or rain on your parade as we lay out a preseason Top 25 and Big Ten power rankings. This forward-looking view of the season will show which teams have the best chance to win it all and which may see dramatic falls. Now, attempting to rank teams going into the season based off previous performances is a fool’s errand, and if there’s a fool running around the college football analytics world it’s this guy (thumbs pointed inward). So enjoy!

Before diving in, a quick note: All of the “rating” numbers below represent an actual expected points scored or allowed (offense or defense) a team would generate against an average opponent (after adjusting for conference strength). The overall rating is the offensive expectation minus the defensive expectation.

National Offense

First up, the projected Top 25 offenses going into 2022. The graph below shows the national ranking on the X-axis with the rating (i.e. expected score vs. an average opponent) on the Y-axis. Shocker, but we immediately see that two teams with two Heisman frontrunner QBs separate themselves from the rest of the field with Ohio State expected to score 41 PPG against an average defense and Alabama 2^nd at 38.5. From there, the drop to 3^rd place is fairly substantial. There’s a few other usual suspects (Oklahoma, Mississippi, Georgia, etc.) all coming in the Top 6. Notably missing from this graph is USC, the team with the best offense money can buy. The new-look Trojans will almost certainly end up in the Top 25 by year’s end, barring disaster. Based on recent performance, however, they fall short for now.

So where’s Penn State, you’re likely asking? Well, they’re not there, which when you think about it is unsurprising based on 2021 performance. Some good news for the Nittany Lions (maybe) is that only 3 opponents are projected to field high-octane offenses – Ohio State (40.8, #1), Michigan (34.1, #8), and Purdue (31.6, #25). As it stands, Penn State’s offense projects to be the 53^rd most potent in FBS, according to our model. Before you audibly groan, please kind in mind that the difference between PSU ranking 25^th (31.6) and 53^rd is only 1.3 PPG. Things bunch up following the top-tier teams.

National Defense

Switching over to the defense, we again see a lot of familiar faces, err logos. Georgia leads the way followed by Wisconsin, Iowa, Clemson, and Penn State. Other Big Ten teams in the Top 25 include Michigan (11^th), Ohio State (12^th), Minnesota (13^th), Illinois (21^st), Nebraska (23^rd), and Purdue (24^th). That’s NINE Big Ten teams in the Top 25! For those who remained unimpressed, that’s, like, a lot. Besides the Big Ten, the SEC has solid representation beyond aforementioned Georgia with Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, and Florida all making the list. As you can see in the chart below, for defense, much more compression as compared to the offensive ranking – no huge outliers. The expected points allowed for UGA is 19.1 which is almost certainly higher than the best defenses will allow (in 2021 – the Top 14 defenses allowed fewer than 20 PPG against FBS competition).

Penn State’s 53^rd ranked offense will face five defenses listed above, starting off with Purdue in Game 1 and Auburn in Game 3. Needless to say, we should learn A LOT the second chapter of Mike Yurcich’s Penn State story, and team overall, by mid-September.

National Top 25

Let’s turn our attention to the top overall programs in FBS going into 2022. Once again, our model has cluster of ELITE teams…meaning if the CFP were based solely off my preseason rankings, three of the playoff spots would be locked up already. Again, the ratings listed below represent the difference between the offensive rating and defensive rating and equate to the expected the margin of victory (or defeat for poor teams) against an average opponent. Ohio State (17.3). Alabama (15.9), and Georgia (15.7) are in a class by themselves. Michigan, ranked 4^th, has a rating of 11.1 — 4.6 points worse than Georgia. Note the margin of victory difference between Georgia and Michigan at 3 and 4 is the same as the difference between Michigan and 23^rd ranked Auburn.

Following Michigan, we have Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Clemson, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss rounding out the Top 10. For those keeping score at home, that’s 4 SEC and 3 Big Ten teams. Penn State comes in at a respectable 15^th nationally. Big Ten brethren Iowa, Minnesota, and Purdue also snuck in the Top 25.

Big Ten Breakdown

If we narrow our focus and just look at the unit rankings within the Big Ten, we see that clearly Ohio State is the cream of the crop and it’s not particularly close. Their stacked offense is a full 8 points better than second-place Michigan. The Buckeyes potent offense lessens the burden for new DC Jim Knowles. Ohio State’s defense is projected to be the 5^th best in the conference. As far as the best projected Big Ten defense, that honor goes to Wisconsin. Unfortunately for Badgers fans, that defense shouldn’t expected much help from Wisconsin’s middling offense. Actually, ‘Good Defense-Mediocre Offense’ is a common theme for 2^nd tier teams like Iowa, Penn State, and Minnesota. Following the Gophers, there is a bit of a defensive drop-off to the Illinois, Nebraska, and Purdue group (still Top 25 nationally). The bottom of the conference is expected to be Northwestern, Rutgers, and Indiana in some order. In our model, Maryland and Michigan State fare worse than many would expect considering the weapons the Terps have on offense and last year’s performance from Sparty.

Lastly, let’s power rank the Big Ten using the overall expected margin of victory ratings. Again, Ohio State towers over the rest of the league at 17.3. From there, we got Michigan (11.1), Wisconsin (9.3), Penn State (8.3), and Iowa (7.7). The bottom of the Big Ten East (Rutgers and Indiana) should provide some respite throughout the season for the divisional heavyweights, which shows the bimodal distribution of the division with 3 of the top 4 overall teams and 3 of the bottom 4. The Big Ten West, on the other hand, has a lot of teams in middle of the pack with Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska, and Illinois all being in the 6-10 tier, only being broken up by Michigan State at 9.

The schedule-maker gods gave Penn State a solid in 2022. The Lions dodge the top of the West with Wisconsin and Iowa coming off the slate and being replaced with Northwestern (12^th ranked) in the out of division match-ups. Minnesota and Purdue will provide strong tests but should also be a bit of a breather compared to playing AT Iowa and AT Wisconsin last season.