Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Michigan State Recap

Introduction

During the 2nd quarter and halftime of the game against Michigan State on Saturday how many of you (us) thought that the last two weeks, where both Penn State’s offense and defense looked competent, were flukes? Who thought that the Lions, who managed wins against terrible Michigan and Rutgers teams, were now being exposed against a terrible 2-win Spartans team, and were destined to finish 2-6 themselves and with the fewest wins in the division? 

I sure did.

 I mean, the Good Guys were down 21-10 at the half and made Payton Thorne look like vintage Peyton Manning as he carved up our secondary. But then the 2nd half came, and the defense looked more like the unit we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks and by the end, Penn Sate was literally doing backflips on the field. 

If it’s possible for a 3-5 team to possess momentum, Penn State seems to have harnessed it heading into Big Ten “Champions” Week – a.k.a., “Hey Fox, Here’s Some TV Content So You Don’t Have to Run a Masked Singer Marathon” Week. 

Basic Statistics Summary – Gruff Sparty Edition

Before delving into the usual content, can I rant about the announcers for a second? Man, they were bad. I get that they’re calling a game between two sub-.500 teams in mid-December from their living rooms, but that’s no excuse for their performance. For example, there was a lengthy conversation about Penn State’s quarterbacks where they made the following two points: Sean Clifford was the original “designated running quarterback” at Penn State and that NFL teams are looking at Will Levis more closely now because of the success of Taysom Hill in New Orleans. HE WAS??!?!? AND, THEY ARE?!?!?

Prior to taking the starter role in 2019, Clifford ran the ball 5 times for a whopping -3 yards – 3 less yards than my toaster put up. So to compare 2018 Clifford to current-Will Levis is like comparing Calculus with a Grapefruit – it’s insane. On the second point, let’s slow down. I’m sure Will Levis is a great kid and I want him to find success in the game of football. He’s done everything that’s asked of him here and has certain skills but to compare him to Taysom is a bit of a reach. Levis has 602 passing yards and 2 TDs through the air. Taysom Hill threw for 6,900+ nice yards at BYU, ran for an additional 2,815, and accounted for 75 total touchdowns.

In honor of the “Gruff Sparty” logo the announcers talked about ad nauseam, we slapped that fat-jawed ancient warrior into our basic stats table. You’ll notice “Gruff Sparty” is the only hint of green in the opponent’s column – a first for this season. Surprisingly, the basics are close – similar yardage, same number of plays, etc. – but if you only watched the game after the half, you would think that the Lions dominated outscoring MSU 29 to 3. It was a throwback to 2016’s “2nd half team” persona and, in my opinion, a great sign for the team going forward. 

Advanced Stats

Today, let’s take a deeper dive into field position — where the offense and defense have started drives throughout the year and the results of that starting field position.

Let’s start with the defense and the graph below. The y-axis is the opponents’ starting field position by drive through the game (<50 means they’re starting in their own territory, 50 is mid-field, >50 means they’re starting in PSU territory). If the marker on the graph is an “X” then the opponent scored either a TD or FG. Turnovers  (marked with an *) include turnovers-on-downs. 

There’s LOTS of interesting information in here. First off, look at the number of +50 drives in the losses and how, in the wins, that number dropped significantly. In the first 5 games, there were 13 drives where the opponent started in PSU territory (2.6 per game; not counting overtime). In the 3 wins, there was 1 total. ONE. What’s more, opponents scored points on 9 of those 13 drives (69%). 

If we isolate only the scoring drives, we get the following graph (BELOW). In the losses, with the exception of Maryland, the defense surrendered at least one score in drives starting in PSU territory. It was worse against Iowa (3) and Indiana (2 in regulation plus 1 in overtime). For the Maryland, Michigan, and MSU games, all scoring drives came from “typical” field position starts and while that’s frustrating in its own right, at least in those situations, the defense was given a realistic chance to succeed.

Now let’s look at the offense. Penn State offense has started 12 drives in opponent territory (there are 2 overlapping X’s in Rutgers) and has scored 7 times (5 TD’s and 2 field goals), missed 2 field goals, and had 3 interceptions including a pick-6. 

Finally, we’ll bring it all together with this final graph. We’ll call any drive that starts in positive territory an “Advantaged Scoring Opportunity” (ASO). In the final visualization for the day, we have defense on the left, offense on the right, and the drive outcome within the O/D categories. To me, this sums up pretty well the struggles that Penn State had early in the year. Look at the load of logos in the “score” bucket of the defense. A couple of Maryland punts, a Maryland victory formation, and a bad missed FG from OSU are the only non-scores the defense allowed. But, every one of those logos in the defense column, except for the lone Scarlet Knight, are in games the Lions lost. No Wolverines or Sparty of any mood – that’s good. 

On the offensive side, you have a pick-six against the Hawkeyes a couple of more turnovers, and some missed FG’s on the negative slate. But again, all of those came in losses. In the wins, the PSU offense has had 3 ASO’s and has scored 2 TD’s and 1 FG. This is undoubtedly better. 

Summary

We’re riding a 3-game winning streak and this is at least in part due to improved ball protection – which in turn yields better field position. In the wins, Penn State’s offense hasn’t put the defense in tough situations and hasn’t dug itself a hole to deep to climb out of (see Ciarrocca’s comments about Clifford trying to be “perfect”). Even against Michigan State, Penn State was only down by 11 coming out of half, didn’t panic, and managed to creep back into the game with smart offense and aggressive defense. This is the Penn State we’ve come to appreciate under James Franklin and can only hope that this trend continues.