Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 8, PSU vs. OSU
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Introduction
As weird as it sounds, Saturday’s battle between Penn State and Ohio State simultaneously showed the Nittany Lions have the talent to complete with anyone in the Big Ten AND reminded us how far away they are from truly being “elite.” And yeah, the whole elite thing is a played out cliché at this point, but it still applies here. Sorry James, you made this bed, not us.
Despite entering as 2-touchdown underdogs in the desert, many pundits felt Penn State matched up better against the Buckeyes than they did against Michigan two weeks prior. Through 51-ish minutes on Saturday, this was proven true as the Nittany Lions grabbed a 21-16 late lead on a gutsy 4th down TD run by Kaytron Allen. Then things changed. The Ohio State offense that had been relatively rudderless through three and half quarters scored 21 points on 175 yards in about three and a half minutes of possession. The Ohio State defense generated, with great plays, two more turnovers to bring their total to four. And the Penn State fan base left the game frustrated and confused about how things can change so quickly.
Quick Hitters
- Parker Washington had the game of his life with 179 yards on 11 catches and 1 touchdown. His 58-yard TD in the second quarter was a huge play that gave Penn State the life it needed and showed that he can shine on the biggest stages in football. The Nittany Lions need him to come back in 2023.
- Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Sean Clifford was up and down – a major reason why Penn State was in position to pull off the upset and a major reason why it ultimately didn’t. The super super senior opened the game with two bad interceptions and closed the game surrendering a fumble and pick 6. Sandwiched in between those four grenades, Clifford strung together some big plays (the KLS touchdown, not to mention the scramble and pass to Theo Johnson to set up that touchdown). But at the end of the day, it wasn’t enough to win. The mistakes were backbreakers.
- Similarly, the PSU defense played winning football for 51-ish minutes, as well. Manny Diaz’s defenders failed to generate any turnovers but had 7 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 2 pass-breakups. The Lions limited the Ohio State run game to 98 yards on 26 carries — 65 of those yards coming on 2 carries.
Basic Statistics
Our weekly basic statistics table displays how even these two teams played, and how misleading the final score was. Penn State won the time-of-possession battle, ran 20 more plays than the Buckeyes, and tallied more total yards. But, ya know, turnovers…
Before Saturday, OSU’s revamped defense was allowing 20 yards/possession. Well, Penn State generated 37 yards/possession, including one abbreviated drive that went for -1 (the fumble) and another that generated 0 (the pick six). On the other side of the ball, the Buckeye offense had generated 44 yards of offense per possession in their previous 7 game. On Saturday, the Nittany Lions defense held them to 35.
Advanced Stats
Do you really wanna unpack what happened vs. Ohio State and squint your eyes at my cool, funky charts like you normally do? Naw, me neither. Instead, let’s focus our sights on the road ahead.Today in advanced stats, lets update our game-by-game projections/win probability for the Lions’ November slate. The Nittany Lions sit at 6-2 with four very winnable games ahead. Should they finish 10-2, an NY6 bowl game is a near guarantee…unless Illinois somehow wins the Big Ten, which, come on. Going into the season we used our algorithm to predict how the team would do in each game. By this time in the season, our model predicted that the Nittany Lions’ record would be 4-4 with losses to Purdue, Auburn, Michigan, and Ohio State. Obviously, our model was wrong. Whatever. Let’s see what we should expect going forward.
Indiana
In August, our model gave Penn State an 89% chance to beat Indiana. The average score of our simulations was PSU 29, IU 24. At this point in the season, things haven’t changed that much, actually. When we input CURRENT data in our predictor Penn State’s win probability at 91% with an average score of 30-25. Honestly, to me, our model likes the Hoosiers much more than we do. Indiana struggles to score, so if the Penn State defense is still interested in playing football now that its dreams of winning the conference went POOF, the Hoosiers will have a very hard time scoring in the 20s.
Maryland
According to our calculations, Maryland remains the toughest test for Penn State through the final four games. The reason? Well, the Terps have outperformed our preseason statistical expectations through two months. They currently sit at 6-2 (3-2 in the Big Ten), the same record as Penn State. They have a game against 4-4 Wisconsin before traveling to Beaver Stadium on November 12. Going into the season, our model had Penn State winning 32-23 but this average margin of victory has tightened through the season, driven by strong offensive play from the Terps. We now give Penn State an 84% chance of victory with an average score of 32-28. There are very few scenarios where the Nits blow out the Terrapins. Along those same lines, if Maryland wins our models predicts it will be close, too.
Rutgers
In the preseason we liked Penn State to defeat Rutgers 28-22. Our model gave Penn State a 92% chance of victory. The score prediction now is about the same but the odds of victory are up to 96%. Personally I don’t see any way the tire fire that is Rutgers manages to score 21 points against a still stout Nittany Lion defense. Hell, Minnesota just shut them out 31-0. Sorry computers, Penn State wins this game handily.
Michigan State
According to our model, Penn State’s best odds of winning come on Senior Day vs. Michigan State. No, seriously. Even better than Rutgers. In 1,000 simulations, our model had the Tuck Comin’s (Comers?) winning 4 times. FOUR! Michigan State is drifting towards the bottom of the conference (you can’t consistently build your entire team in the portal) and Penn State will go out with a victory.
Summary
There we have it. Four game to go. Four projected wins. Sure, the bottom falling out against Ohio State hurt…but hey, four projected wins! This duality of emotions IS Penn State fandom in a nutshell. Hope and expectation resides next to pessimism and bewilderment with nothing but a blurry property line separating the two…or four, I guess.
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