Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 6: PSU vs. Michigan

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Introduction

Technically, the game hasn’t ended, yet here I am letting my fingers clack away on the keyboard because the competitive phase of this Big Noon Nightmare has been over for close to 45 minutes. Other than a Carnival-Ring-Toss-Bounce Pick Six and Sean Clifford’s 62-yard run in his old man Nike Air Monarchs, not a lot went right for the good guys in white. This was (is…) a wakeup call for the Penn State fanbase as it dramatically hits the hopes for a Big Ten championship, playoff appearance, and a breakthrough from the previous two years of mediocrity. All that’s left to ponder is whether this 5-0 start will turn out to be fools gold like last year’s 5-0 start.

Quick Hitters

1. Penn State finished +1 in turnover margin (the pick-six), which is an improvement versus the Northwestern giveaway jubilee. So, there’s that. https://media.giphy.com/media/mmYy42RNrgA0w/giphy.gif
2. Michigan punter Brad Robbins could have spent the day eating Baskin Robbins while listening to Tony Robbins, because the dude didn’t punt once. Every Michigan drive ended in a score, turnover, or kneel down.
3. General Rant: I, and so many fans, thought the defense would step up and at least offer some resistance vs. the Michigan run game, and that the PSU offense would use its own run game to move the chains and sustain drives. Well, neither of those things happened. This was a straight bullying on both sides of the ball.

Basic Statistics

Holy cow they got murdered. What I can’t comprehend is how the heck Penn State twice took the lead in this statistically lopsided affair? Since Penn State took a 17-16 lead on its opening drive of the 3^rd quarter, the Wolverines scored 25 unanswered points to close out the game. Michigan had more running plays than Penn State had total plays. Second fiddle Donovan Edwards alone had 173 yards and nearly outgained the entire Nittany Lion team by himself.

It all starts with the Michigan run game, a maized-out wrecking crew that averaged 7.8 yards/attempt leading to more than 40 minutes time-of-possession. Bold take: You’re not going to win many (any?) games if you’re giving up nearly 8 yards a carry. For their part, the Nittany Lions had 111 yards on 22 carries. One of those was Clifford’s 62 yarder, which makes the performance almost respectable. If you take that run out, the Nits averaged 2.3 yards/carry, which would rank be near the bottom of FBS.

Entering Saturday, doubts loomed regarding J.J. McCarthy’s ability to win a game when the pressure was on. Those doubts still exist because Penn State did nothing defensively to force the 5-star to win the game on his own. There was one interception, one sack, and a few pressures, but the dominance of Michigan’s offensive kept any real mental pressure off the young QB who finished with 145 yards on 24 attempts in a virtually stress-free day.

Contextualization Day

When Penn State loses a game they should win or in an inexcusable way, I like to put the performance in a statistical context of the Franklin era because I get lazy and disgusted. This beatdown obviously doesn’t fall in that first bucket – they shouldn’t have won this game and it was only the blue Kool-Aid drinkers (pours a bucket of blue liquid down my sink) who thought they had a shot. But did they lose in an inexcusable way? Oh my goodness, yes. When a program that recruits at the same level Penn State does runs over Penn State, well, that’s inexcusable. Therefore, I’m compartmentalizing this game as it fits in the lots-of-sizzle, not-much-steak James Franklin era at Penn State.

1. This was the 108^th game of the Coach James Franklin era at Penn State. He is now 72-36, good for a 0.67 win-%. Through 2019, he was 56-23 (71%). So the arrow is pointing the wrong direction here.
2. Since 2014, Penn State is 21-19 in the 40 true away games played.
3. You will not be surprised to learn that the 418 rush yards Michigan gobbled up are the most allowed by a Penn State defense under Franklin. 2^nd was the Illinois game last year at 357.
4. The 7.6 rush-yard-per-attempt allowed was the most in the Franklin era by 1 full yard.
5. The Michigan passing offense had 6 YPA which is 55^th best and the 145 passing yards is the 26^th fewest allowed – the Wolverines didn’t need to throw, though. The Penn State defense couldn’t force 3^rd and longs.
6. The 563 total yards allowed is 2^nd most allowed by a Penn State defense. The most was the 2017 Rose Bowl (575 yards). Yes, both of those games were losses, but only one – this one – left us with a disgusting taste in our mouths.
7. Penn State completed 12 passes which is the 14^th fewest under CJF. The Lions are somehow 9-5 in those games.
8. Penn State had 5.4 yards/pass attempt which ranks 90^th out of 108 games.
9. Penn State’s 5 yards-per-rush attempt on offense ranks 33^rd Thanks, Sean.
10. The Nittany Lions only ran 51 total plays, which is 4^th The last time Penn State played at Michigan with a crowd in attendance back in 2018, the Lions only ran 47 plays. The last time Penn State ran exactly 51 plays was the 2021 season opener at Wisconsin.
11. The 18.1 minutes TOP is 2^nd worst only to the Wisconsin game in 2021.
12. Michigan gained 1.9 yards/play more than Penn State, which is 6^th worst yard-per-play differential – all 6 of those games were losses. Michigan in 2016, 2018 were two of the other 6 games.
13. Michigan’s 65% conversion rate on 3^rd down is the 3^rd worst allowed by a Penn State defense.

Summary

That was disappointing and it sucked.