Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 11, Rutgers
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Introduction
Another week, another dominating Penn State win. Huh, so this is what being an Ohio State fan must feel like. How boring. Like always, Penn State traveled east and big-brothered Rutgers like the Nittany Lions always do, marking the third straight Saturday Penn State picked up a W against the division’s traditional also-rans. Much like the Indiana and Maryland wallopings, Penn State leaned on it’s two-headed freshmen backfield attack along with another merciless defensive performance to end the competitive phase of this contest by the middle of the 3rd Quarter.
Quick Hitters
- With the win on Saturday, James Franklin now has 100 wins as a college head coach – 76 of them at Penn State. Say what you will, but this is a great accomplishment and places Franklin near the Top 10 of active Power Five coaches in career wins – Congrats Coach!
- According to Penn State Communications, Nicholas (don’t call him Nick apparently) Singleton and Kaytron Allen join 3 other freshman duos since 2000 to each have 700 rushing yards. Those other three combos were: John Rhys Plumlee & Jerrion Early (Ole Miss); Todd Gurley & Keith Marshall (UGA); and Steve Slaton & Pat White (WVU). Of those 3, Gurley and Marshall was the lone 2 RB tandem. The other 2 were QB-RB.
- The Magic Foot (aka Barney Amor) has had a rough few weeks and ended up benched for one punt on Saturday. That benching awoke something in him because when he re-entered the game he dropped a dime that stuck on the three-yard line. That poor field position set up the next play — Johnny Dixon’s shoulda-been-pick-6 interception. Punting remains a very important aspect of the game.
- The defense tormented the Rutgers offense to the tune of 15 TFLs and 4 sacks. Penn State now ranks 6th nationally in TFL/game, 12th in sacks/game, and 29th in interceptions/game. Manny Diaz has been an absolute menace and his unit’s fury is easily the most fun part of any Penn State game.
Basic Statistics
The first quarter of Saturday’s game seemed to last several hours and was a lot closer than anyone expected. Penn State’s scores came off of a Nicholas Singleton kickoff return TD and Kobe King’s scoop-and-score. The offense looked anemic and, except for a couple of big negative plays, the defense was giving up yards and points. It was a very cold, rainy day in Houston and I thought going for a walk may have been more fun than sitting through another three quarters of frustration. But then the defense clamped down, the offense got going, the Nittany Lions scored 41 points over the last three quarters, and all was right in the world.
For as good as the Lions defense was against Indiana and Maryland, they were somehow better against Rutgers, holding the Scarlet Squires to 167 total yards — 32 rushing and 135 passing. They forced three turnovers, two of which ended up as defensive scores (the King scoop-and-score and Tig Brown’s 70 yard scoop-and-score TD). Dixon’s interception would’ve been a pick-6 if not for a bogus penalty. I fully understand that the offensive line, quarterback, coaching, skill position talent of the last three opponents isn’t in the same galaxy as Ohio State and Michigan but, my goodness, this unit is absolute fire and are dominating inferior opponents in embarrassing fashion…which is what great defenses SHOULD do.
Penn State is a bonafide running team. Another game, another 200+ yard rushing performance led by the youngsters with a sprinkling of QB runs. This week was the week of the “Fat Man” with Kaytron Allen going for 117 yards on 11 carries. We saw 13 combined rushes from Clifford and Allar for 62 yards and 2 TDs. And St. Nicholas chipped in 62 yards on 9 carries (plus the 100-yard kick return). All of this occurred behind an offensive line that is down three starters. We saw several new shifts and plays out of the T-formation, evidence that the fun and creativity is back in the offensive scheme. Yurcich, Trautwein, Seider, Stubblefield all have their guys doing work and clicking as a cohesive group. Everything is shaping up for 2023 being the best championship opportunity for this team since 2017.
Advanced Stats
Today we recognize James Franklin’s 100th win, 76 of which happened as the head coach of Penn State. As the leaders of the Nittany Lions program, Franklin is 76-36 (68%). At Vanderbilt, he was 24-15 (62%). Let’s look a little closer at Coach Franklin’s tenure at Penn State and some of the most important stats that went into deciding if those games were wins or losses.
Turnover Battle
In wins, Franklin’s teams have averaged a +0.8 turnover margin. In losses, it has been -1 (including the -4 from Ohio State this year). Turnovers still matter and, by year, you see how important this is in determining wins and losses. In every season except 2017 and 2019, losses have come with a negative turnover margin. Wins tend happen more when Penn State wins this turnover battle. This is obviously not fool proof (see Illinois 2021 and Michigan 2022) but it’s almost always a good idea to protect the ball.
Yards-per-Play
Yardage efficiency (per play) tends to be a better predictor of performance than yards/game. Really, the differential between yards/play generated and allowed is usually a telltale giveaway on the outcome of games, as well.
In PSU games coached by Franklin since 2014, losses average a -0.6 yard per play differential and wins are a +1.8. The table below is quite telling. Notice how the Michigan and Ohio State games of this season stick out with an average of -1.7 yards per play differential. Only in 2018 did Penn State average a positive yard/play in losses (they did have a -1.3 turnover margin in those losses, however). For the wins, they’re all positive and this year’s +2.2 yard per play differential is the top mark.
If we look at yards/play generated vs. yards/play allowed we see a bit more context on these. The 2022 season notwithstanding, the yards generated tends to drop by >1 yard per play in losses versus wins. In fact, when the team is winning, they’re averaging 6.3 yard/play. When they’re losing, this drops to 4.9.
For yard/play allowed, the difference is actually somewhat lower in wins and losses than it is compared to the offensive production. In wins, the defense allows 4.5 yards/play and in losses, that number goes to 5.4. The biggest deltas (2016, 2017, 2019, and 2022) are the ones where the team had the best record and a chance at the playoff, which is somewhat frustrating as a fan but these seasons also represent the fewest losses (typically to good teams).
Points
Logically, Losses usually occur against the best defenses on Penn State’s schedule (Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa) and when it comes to points scored, you can clearly see a drop in offensive production in losses versus wins. Under Franklin, the offense averages 36.6 points per game in wins and 20.6 in losses. The losses come by an average of 11.2 points.
While we’d like to see the offense keep scoring at a high rate in games that end up being losses, the defense also allows more points in losses than wins…which makes sense. In 2016, Penn State’s D averaged fewer than 20 points per game in wins and 48 in losses. That’s a stark contrast. Overall, the defense allows only 14.5 points per game in wins, which is likely a top 5 number nationally. In losses, though, they’re allowing 31.8 points per game. That’s not a top 5 national number… To summarize, in wins, the final average score is Penn State 36.6, Bad Guys 14.5 and in losses it’s PSU 20.6, Other Team 31.8. On both sides of the ledger, PSU’s wins and losses in the Franklin era tend to be blowouts.
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