Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Forecasting Penn State’s 2022 Game-by-Game Results
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Introduction
From Tuscaloosa to Los Angeles to Pittsburgh and all points in between, now is the time when every college football fanbase throws probability out the window, plugs their collective ears from listening to the voices of reason, and mentally crafts a path to the College Football Playoff…no matter how absurd or unlikely the route. Of course, the same applies in State College. The ho-hum mood that hung over Nittany Lions loyalists for the summer months has given way to unbridled optimism following the cliché grab-bag of media day and the release of that one clip where Kaytron Allen snatches Mehki Flowers’ soul (poor guy). For now, it’s OK to close your eyes and dream of spending early January fighting the traffic hellscape that is Inglewood, California at 4 pm on a Monday. Ahh, glorious isn’t it?
(Snaps Fingers)
Unfortunately, today’s ABC entry isn’t tailored for those with their head in the clouds. No, it’s rooted in reality and a bunch of math. Like we did around this time last year, we used our proprietary algorithm to calculate the win probability and a consensus final score of Penn State’s 12 regular season contests in 2022.
We used this same method to predict the 2021 bowl season and matched SP+ game for game in terms of against-the-spread picks and O/U predictions (ABC: 19 out of 37 ATS; 20 O/U; SP+: 18 ATS, 20 O/U). Straight up, our method was somewhat worse than SP+ (ABC: 16/37; SP+: 21/37) but money is made on spreads, right? Between then and now, I have made some updates to the formula — tweaks that make this algorithm better at picking games straight-up while staying similarly competitive at ATS selections (New Algorithm would have had 20 winners straight up, and 18 ATS winners last bowl season).
There are (obviously) huge challenges which trying to forecast games scheduled for October or November in August. The ratings used in this algorithm come from various data points extracted from 2021 (obviously) and a team’s recent history beyond last season. Problem is, with the portal, incoming freshman, coaching changes, and inevitable injuries that will occur, there are myriad variables that cannot be accounted in the summer before a season. Nevertheless, the content machine is hungry. So let’s feed it, shall we?
Each game below is the outcome of 1,000 simulations where we look at the expected worst- and best-case performance that each team’s offense and defense should have versus the other. We will present Penn State’s win probability, expected points scored, and the expected histogram of margin. We’ll add up each expected outcome to predict the final record.
Game-by-Game Predictions
Overview: The Nittany Lions open the season on Thursday, September 1st in West Lafayette, Indiana. We’ll display the expected FBS rankings for offense, defense, and overall efficiency for each team in these cool info boxes, like you see above. For some reason, our algorithm LOOOOOVES Purdue, projecting the Boilers to have Top-25 units on both side of the line of scrimmage. The Nittany Lions will (expectedly) bring a top-5 defense to the table and, at least as of now, a near average offense. Overall though, the strength of the defense drives them to start the season as the 16th best team in the country, according to our formula. Considering both Penn State and Purdue suffered considerable personnel losses to the NFL this past spring, we should learn a ton about these two teams in Week 1.
Prediction: Give us a second to go over the graph above, as it will be used for every game we forecast. In the top left is Penn State’s win probability (in this case 31%). The top right shows the average scores of our 1,000 simulations (Purdue gets +3 points for home-field advantage). In the bottom left we have the histogram of differential. The negative numbers are a home team win and the positive numbers are away team victories. They are also color-coded by count (i.e. the most probable outcome is a 2-point Purdue win, with ~100 occurrences). Finally, in the bottom right are the scores from every simulation in the winner’s color. So for example, there are cases (top-left of graph) where Purdue scores 30+ points and Penn State scores 22 points. They’re yellow because Purdue wins.
Even though Penn State currently sits as a 3-point favorite in Vegas and other hubs of degeneracy, the Nittany Lions recent string of offensive ineptitude really hurts their metrics, resulting in a close projected Purdue win. A rebirth of the Penn State running game would go a long way toward making our calculations look silly, though.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 0.31 Wins-0.69 Losses
- Absolute: 0-1
Overview: The home opener is sandwiched between two very tough road tests to open the season. Thankfully, the buy-a-win sacrificial lamb is one of the worst teams in the country, the Ohio Bobcats. The MAC also-rans won 3 games last season against Akron, Miami (OH), and Eastern Michigan. in the Ohio Bobcats who are coming off a 3-win season where their victories were against Akron, Miami (OH), and Eastern Michigan. The Bobcats have a preseason defensive rank of 106th and the offense shouldn’t be much better.
Prediction: The algorithm gives our Nittany Lions a 97% win probability in this one with an average victory margin of 8 points. In reality, it will likely be higher than that and you can see from the histogram that we have some 17+ point margins of victory for Penn State. If Ohio is going to pull an upset it will need to find a way to score lots of points against the Penn State defense. Of the few ‘Ohio wins’ scenarios in our simulation, the Bobcats score more than 26 points.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 1.28 Wins – 0.72 Losses
- Absolute: 1 – 1
Overview: The bookend of the opening road gauntlet comes on September 17th when Penn State travels to Jordan-Hare Stadium to play the Auburn Tigers (on CBS!) in a rematch of last year’s Whiteout. On paper, you have two stellar defenses coming into the season with Penn State’s #5 squad and Auburn ranking 17th. Offensively, Auburn has a slight advantage in ranking (38 v 53) but the efficiency numbers are basically a tie leading to Penn State being ranked overall somewhat higher.But, an out-of-conference SEC game in September? How will the heat, humidity, and crowd play an impact in this one?
Prediction: This one is closer than I expected with Penn State being a bit of an underdog with a 42% win probability. Auburn is winning the sims by an average of 0.5 points which means that the home field advantage is a huge factor in the outcome. This one should be a great game and should end, like last year, within one possession either way.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 1.70 Wins – 1.30 Losses
- Absolute: 1 – 2
Overview: The 2nd home game brings another MAC opponent when the Chippewas of Central Michigan come to town. Unlike Ohio though, CMU was 9-4 last year and beat Washington State in the Sun Bowl. They could prove a tougher test than Ohio, but really shouldn’t. The Chips will field an average offense but below average defense. This could/should be another opportunity for James Franklin to empty the bench and play a bunch of true freshmen in the second half.
Prediction: Look at that! According to our algorithm, Penn State is a guaranteed victor over CMU. There are no sims where the Lions lose even though the average margin of victory is only about 5 points. Surely, by now, you’re a little confused: How could MAC doormat Ohio have a better win probability at Penn State than MAC contender Central Michigan? The answer is that, despite 2021, Ohio has a much higher variability in their production in the last 3 years whereas Central Michigan has been incredibly consistent. Over the last 3 years, Central Michigan has the 3rd least offensive variability and 4th least defensive (both average or below in terms of rating). Ohio on the other hand has had pretty significant variability which makes them somewhat of a wild card. With that said, Penn State is going to win both games.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 2.7 Wins – 1.30 Losses
- Absolute: 2 – 2
Overview: It’s great to have a Big Ten West crossover slate that doesn’t involve Iowa or Wisconsin. Penn State opens up October against Pat Fitzgerald’s Northwestern Wildcats. While the time is currently TBD, I can all but guarantee this will be a Noon kickoff. If this was an 11 a.m. local Evanston kickoff, I’d consider this a classic trap game. But it’s not. It’s in Happy Valley and despite the fact that the NW defenses have been consistently good lately (35th ranked going into the year), their offense is dreadful. The Wildcats rank 109th in FBS in offensive efficiency. By Game 5 we should know a lot about the Penn State offense. If they’re what they should be, this game will be over before I finish lunch in Texas. If not, it could be Illinois 2021 Part 2.
Prediction: Hand up — I did not expect 100% win probability when I pushed the “go” button. According to our calculation, Penn State WILL enter the bye week feeling good after dowing Northwestern. The average projected margin of victory is 11 points for Penn State and there are a couple of 20+ wins against no projected losses. Again, I’m as surprised as you. Only 3% of our 1,000 simulations have this as 3-point game or less. From the projections, the Wildcats won’t be able to score against the vaunted Penn State defense.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 3.7 Wins – 1.30 Losses
- Absolute: 3 – 2
Overview: Coming off of the bye week, the Nittany Lions travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan fresh off its long-awaited breakthrough season. The 2021 Penn State vs. Michigan contest was one (of many…) where the Lions squandered a 4th quarter-lead to lose in a close game. The offensive line was dominated by Michigan’s defensive ends but even with that mismatch, Penn State still had a 3-point cushion near the end of the game. 2021 was a season of “what could’ve beens” for Penn State after Sean Clifford’s injury. If the Nittany Lions somehow manage to be 5-0 heading into the October 15 tilt in the Big House, they will have an opportunity to avenge many of the faults of last year.
Prediction: Going into the season, Penn State is expected to lose by about a touchdown to Michigan and has only a 9% win probability. Some of the simulated scores have the Nittany Lions losing by 16+ points, which isn’t unreasonable when you consider the backhandings given in 2016 and 2018. For those wearing blue-and-white tinted glasses, remember our algorithm doesn’t account for coaching upheaval (Michigan lost both its offensive and defensive coordinators). So there’s a chance.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 3.78 Wins – 2.21 Losses
- Absolute: 3 – 3
Overview: Thanks to Rupert Murdoch, Al Bundy, and Bart Simpson, the Whiteout comes to town a week earlier than it should this season when Minnesota and our old friend Kirk Ciarrocca enter the Beav. We have covered Whiteout history fairly extensively in the past year and it’s a surprise when the chosen opponent isn’t Michigan or Ohio State. The last two games against Minnesota have been highly impactful for the Nittany Lions. In 2016, the Gophers jumped out to a halftime lead that had the Beaver Stadium crowd booing the team as they exited the field only to see Penn State, led by Saquon Barkley, win in walk-off fashion in overtime, sparking a Big Ten title run. Then, in 2019, when 5th-ranked Penn State traveled to #13 Minnesota, the Golden Gophers held on to beat Penn State 31-26. Between those two Minnesota games, the Nittany Lions went 36-7 and were one of the top programs in the country. Since the 2019 loss to UMTC, our Nittany Lions are 14-11. Gross. Revenge and resurgence should be in the air.
Prediction: Minnesota has been a program on an upward trajectory since P.J. Fleck came to town and will bring a preseason top-15 defense and experienced QB in Tanner Morgan. However, the simulation likes Penn State to pull out the win with an 84% probability. There are more scenarios where Minnesota beats Penn State than where Penn State beats Michigan, so the Gophers have a puncher’s chance. But our forecast expects this will be a Whiteout where Penn State is a rare favorite that will win.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 4.63 Wins – 2.37 Losses
- Absolute: 4 – 3
Overview: When Ohio State University-Columbus visits Beaver Stadium, it will cap the toughest 3-game stretch on the Nittany Lions’ 2022 schedule. Unlike the Minnesota game, I would bet a lot of money that Penn State will be a sizable underdog for what’s likely to be the Fox ‘Big Noon’ Kickoff game. Going into the season, Ohio State boasts the top offense in FBS, a near-the-top defense, and the best overall efficiency rating according to our calculations. So, they’re, like, really good. Talented roster. Accomplished coaching staff. The Beaver Stadium crowd could be a under-calculated X-factor, though, especially if this game still has Big Ten East title implications for Penn State at this point of the season.
Prediction: Based on the algorithm, Penn State has about a 5% chance to win this game with the lone path to victory being an old fashioned shootout where both teams put up 30+ points. There are many other scenarios where the Buckeyes win by as much as 18, which would be very surprising given how close Penn State tends to play Ohio State.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 4.69 Wins – 3.31 Losses
- Absolute: 4 – 4
Overview: November brings a breather as Penn State heads to Indiana to battle the Hoosiers. In the ratings, IU comes in with (somehow…) one of the worst offenses in FBS over the past several years but a slightly above average defense. This Pam Ward special has all of the makings for a sleepy start, causing Penn State fans to blow up message boards with “Fire Everyone!” threads before the Lions eventually sneak out a victory late in the 2nd half. This sleepiness will be amplified no matter outcome of the previous week’s meeting with Ohio State. A Penn State win and Indiana becomes a trap game; a close Penn State loss is an emotional challenge; an Ohio State blowout and you are in “give up” territory. This is a tough position.
Prediction: Despite the concern I expressed in the previous paragraph, the computer doesn’t take emotion into account so, today, Penn State has a 89% chance of winning with the average margin of victory close to a full touchdown. However, there are a good number of scenarios where Indiana pulls the W but they’ll always need to score more than 24 points to do it.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 5.58 Wins – 3.42 Losses
- Absolute: 5 – 4
Overview: Expect that 2020 “You Were…We Are” edit from the Maryland graphics department to be plastered throughout the Lasch building when the Terps venture north in mid-November. The Terps are the 50th-ranked team going into 2022 and should have a serviceable offense led by the younger Tagovailoa brother but, as we’ve seen in the last decade, hot starts tend to wilt for Maryland once the season progresses.
Prediction: I went with yellow for the Terrapins in our graphic and there’s barely any to be seen on the page. Penn State at home wins 100% of the simulations against Maryland, even though they lost the last real game that was played between the two teams at Beaver Stadium (2020). It’s 2022 though and not 2020 and this version of Penn State is poised to beat Maryland by about 10 points, according to our formula.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 6.58 Wins – 3.42 Losses
- Absolute: 6 – 4
Overview: Likely the worst team in the Big Ten East hosts Penn State in the penultimate game of 2022 and there is no more dichotomous team heading into the season than Rutgers who boasts a top-50 defense with a bottom-20 offense. The combination of these two variables makes the fightin’ Schianos slightly below average. Having the 110th “best” offense in FBS is a deep hole to climb out from.
Prediction: Rutgers, at home, has a better chance of beating Penn State than Penn State does at beating Ohio State. This makes me sad. This is basically a carbon copy of the Indiana situation where the only thing putting red on the board is the fact that it’s at home and the Scarlet Knights get 3 points for that. Still though, there are more simulations where Penn State wins by exactly 11 or 12 points than there are where Rutgers wins outright so you have to like the Lions chances here.
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 7.50 Wins – 3.50 Losses
- Absolute: 7 – 4
Overview: Land-Grant week. Shelves. Glued-on knick-knacks. A three-quarters empty student section because of Thanksgiving break. Such pageantry – PSU vs. Transfer Portal U. Mel Tucker with a new batch of fresh faces after his 2021 crop of castaways vaulted MSU to an 11-2 season complete with a NY6 bowl win. The Spartans are strong both offensively and defensively in the ratings but will have to replace 2021 Big Ten leading rusher Kenneth Walker III and other weapons. Revenge will be on the mind of the Nittany Lions who squandered a 2nd half lead to the Spartans in a snow bowl last season.
Prediction: Out of all of the projections, Penn State having a 92% win probability against MSU is the one I like the least. Statistically, the Nittany Lions should be better but history shows that Sparty is often a thorn in the paw of Penn State. The projected outcomes suggest a high-scoring game with both teams eclipsing 24 points on average. Now, the last time MSU visited Beaver Stadium to end the season was… 2016 when Penn State clinched the Big Ten East. Let’s just do that again!
Season Tally:
- Probabilistic: 8.42 Wins – 3.58 Losses
- Absolute: 8 – 4
Wrap-up
And there we have it folks – a 3,000-word spoiler of a season that’s still 2.5 weeks away. To summarize, our system predicts that the Nittany Lions will go about 8-4 (8.4 wins to be precise), which lines up with the current gambling win total O/U at 8.5. Considering Penn State’s recent recruiting efforts, the overall depth of talent on the roster, plus the return of a 6th-year QB, our 8-4 record forecast probably would feel like a bit of a disappointment to most PSU fans. Of course, our calculations don’t come with a crystal ball. There are sooooo many variables that cannot be accounted for. So thanks for the click and the page view, but please don’t let our algorithm keep you from California Dreamin’.
